If you want to be both amused and annoyed, do an internet search of “winter forecast” and see what comes up. You will read about La Nina and what it means this winter. You will later stumble across other ideas about what it means, which will severely contradict the previous explanations. You will read personal rants in various comments sections from people who know little about long-range forecasting but know a lot about how to shout when writing. You will read about how last winter’s forecasts were right in some places and wrong in others.

Eventually, you will stumble across the Old Farmer’s Almanac and recall how their forecast is almost never correct despite the claim that it is right 80 percent of the time. You will read their forecast and tell yourself you do not believe it, but you will still believe it a little. After a while, you will get bored and find something else to look at. In the end, you will have no idea how the upcoming winter will be.

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